Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Wenceel PerezBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Reese OlsonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Carpenter singled to center, Greene scored.3–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 32–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 7Báez doubled to center, Vierling scored, Kennedy to third.2–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 6Pérez tripled to right, Greene scored.1–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 30–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 20–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 10–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 5Larnach hit sacrifice fly to left, Jeffers scored.0–4
- 5Pitch 9 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 5Kirilloff grounded into fielder's choice to first, Martin scored, Jeffers safe at second on fielding error by first baseman Torkelson, Jeffers safe at third on error.0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Jeffers hit sacrifice fly to right, Martin scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Castro hit sacrifice fly to left, Buxton scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 55%
- ML DET +115 / MIN -135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 53.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -124
- DET +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.5 – 4.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −6 | DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +23 Elo | MIN 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.428th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.226th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–2 | Road vs home | 1–529th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–13 | 8–10 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–11 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 10–10 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 11–7 MIN in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 18.