Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yariel RodriguezPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Alec MarshPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 6Clement grounded out to shortstop, Varsho scored.2–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 31–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 5Witt Jr. singled to center, Isbel scored, Garcia to second.1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 5Springer homered to center (417 feet).1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2Garcia singled to left, Isbel scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Perez singled to left, Witt Jr. scored, Pasquantino to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 52%
- ML TOR -120 / KC +100
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.3 pts
- TOR: Elo 56.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -109
- KC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.6 – 4.4 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −14 | TOR: Yariel Rodriguez: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · KC: Alec Marsh: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +45 Elo | TOR 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.21st of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +1.53rd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 19th of 307–8 | Road vs home | 10–53rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–11 | 15–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–5 | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders | 10–13–1 | 8–15–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 7–2 KC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.