Detroit Tigers at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Kenta MaedaPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Rays- Isaac ParedesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Canha homered to left center (395 feet).4–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 8Greene homered to right center (408 feet), Kelly scored.3–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Paredes homered to left center (384 feet), Arozarena scored.1–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Greene homered to center (426 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 59%
- ML DET +135 / TB -159
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- TB: Elo 58.7%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -144
- DET +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.6 – 4.4 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | 0 | DET: Kenta Maeda: team allows 0.80 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +61 Elo | TB 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.922nd of 30 |
| 5th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.025th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–3 | Road vs home | 7–818th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–13 | 9–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–11 | 5–13 |
| Underdog | 9–2 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 11–12 | 14–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–5 TB in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.