Detroit Tigers at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Mark CanhaBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Rays- Curtis MeadBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler AlexanderPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Mead homered to left (327 feet), Rortvedt scored.5–7
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play5–7
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 25–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 6Rortvedt singled to left, Paredes scored.5–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–5
- 6Báez doubled to center, Kennedy scored.5–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 34–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 24–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 14–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 6Kennedy singled to left, Vierling scored.4–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 5Canha singled to left, Báez scored and Rogers scored.3–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 2Díaz singled to right, Caballero scored.1–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 2Caballero singled to left, Rortvedt scored.1–3
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 31–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Rortvedt doubled to right, H. Ramírez scored, Rortvedt to third.1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 52%
- ML DET +100 / TB -120
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.7 pts
- TB: Elo 57.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TB -109
- DET +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.9 – 4.1 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | 0 | DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Shawn Armstrong: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +55 Elo | TB 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.822nd of 30 |
| 6th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −1.025th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–3 | Road vs home | 7–919th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–13 | 9–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–11 | 5–14 |
| Underdog | 10–2 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 11–13 | 14–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–5 TB in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.