Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Ernie ClementBatting1-1, 1 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 4Clement singled to center, Turner scored, Schneider to third.1–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 10–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 1Perez homered to left (404 feet), Pasquantino scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 50%
- ML TOR -110 / KC -110
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- KC: Elo 43.6%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- KC -100
- TOR -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.8 – 3.8 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −4 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.87 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +44 Elo | TOR 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.21st of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +1.53rd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 21st of 307–9 | Road vs home | 11–53rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–12 | 16–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–6 | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders | 10–14–1 | 8–16–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 7–3 KC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.