Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting1-4, 1 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Wenceel PerezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Rogers homered to right center (382 feet).1–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 2Greene hit sacrifice fly to right, Rogers scored, Meadows to third.1–3
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 31–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1Pérez homered to right (368 feet), Canha scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Witt Jr. singled to center, Garcia scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 61%
- ML KC +145 / DET -170
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- DET: Elo 56.3%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- DET -154
- KC +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.3 – 4.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +16 | KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.78 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +44 Elo | DET 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.022nd of 30 |
| 1st of 303.1 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.6 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 21st of 305–6 | Road vs home | 5–822nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–10 | 11–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–4 | 1–13 |
| Underdog | 13–6 | 10–3 |
| Overs–unders | 10–17–1 | 14–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 4–11 DET in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 15.