Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Matt VierlingBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Casey MizePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Witt Jr. singled to center, Blanco scored.5–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–6
- 9Garcia grounded out to shortstop, Massey scored, Blanco to third.4–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 7Vierling homered to left center (377 feet), Canha scored and Carpenter scored.3–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 7Carpenter singled to right, Greene scored, Canha to second.3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 7Canha singled to center, Rogers scored, Greene to second.3–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 2McKinstry tripled to right, Keith scored.3–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 2Garcia singled to center, Massey scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Perez singled to left, Witt Jr. scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pasquantino grounded out to first, Garcia scored, Witt Jr. to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 51%
- ML KC -105 / DET -115
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.6 pts
- DET: Elo 55.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -104
- KC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.2 – 4.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +11 | KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +40 Elo | DET 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.921st of 30 |
| 1st of 303.0 | Runs allowed | 3.98th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.7 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 17th of 305–5 | Road vs home | 4–823rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–10 | 11–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–4 | 1–12 |
| Underdog | 12–6 | 10–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–17–1 | 13–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 4–10 DET in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.