St. Louis Cardinals at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Steven MatzPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Tigers- Wenceel PerezBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Matt ManningPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Carpenter hit sacrifice fly to left, Pérez scored.6–11
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–11
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–10
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 26–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–10
- 7Meadows walked, Rogers scored, Báez to second, Pérez to third.6–10
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 46–10
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 36–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging6–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 26–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–9
- 7Rogers doubled to left, Torkelson scored.6–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 26–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–8
- 7Greene homered to right (386 feet).6–8
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 36–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking6–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking6–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 26–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–7
- 7Burleson singled to left, Nootbaar scored, Goldschmidt to second.6–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–7
- 5Pérez homered to right (385 feet), Torkelson scored.5–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 25–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 5Rogers grounded out to shortstop, Canha scored, Torkelson to third.5–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 25–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 15–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–4
- 5Burleson homered to left center (374 feet), Arenado scored and Goldschmidt scored.5–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 53%
- ML STL +105 / DET -125
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- DET: Elo 56.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -114
- STL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.1 – 4.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −4 | STL: Steven Matz: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · DET: Matt Manning: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +44 Elo | DET 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 3.923rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.86th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 16th of 309–8 | Road vs home | 6–921st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–12 | 12–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 2–14 |
| Underdog | 11–6 | 10–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–17–2 | 14–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–2 DET in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.