Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting2-3
- Framber ValdezPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Raleigh homered to left center (390 feet), France scored.5–0
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 33–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 5Urías homered to center (420 feet).3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Garver doubled to right, Polanco scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Raleigh grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, France scored, Haniger out at second.1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 55%
- ML SEA +115 / HOU -135
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- HOU: Elo 49.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -124
- SEA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.5 – 4.0 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +4 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +1 Elo | SEA 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 20th of 306–7 | Road vs home | 7–1025th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–18 | 11–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–12 | 7–17 |
| Underdog | 6–6 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–23–2 | 10–17–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 0–10 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 9–5 HOU in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 14.