Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Astros- Jon SingletonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Raleigh homered to left (394 feet).5–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 8Urías singled to center, Moore scored, Urías to second.4–4
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 7Singleton homered to right (379 feet), Peña scored.3–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Tucker homered to right (363 feet), Altuve scored.3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 6Raley homered to right center (407 feet).3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 2Rojas singled to left, Raley scored, Urías to second, Moore to third.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Urías walked, Garver scored, Moore to second, Raley to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 41–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 54%
- ML SEA +110 / HOU -130
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- HOU: Elo 47.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -119
- SEA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.1 – 4.4 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −25 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 1.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +18 Elo | SEA 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.2 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.622nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 14th of 307–7 | Road vs home | 7–1126th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–18 | 11–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 8–12 | 7–18 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–24–2 | 10–18–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 0–10 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 10–5 HOU in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 15.