Houston Astros at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Juan SotoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Altuve singled to right, Dubón scored, Meyers to second.4–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–9
- 8Soto singled to center, Cabrera scored.3–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–8
- 8Peña homered to left center (379 feet).3–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–8
- 7Meyers tripled to center, Dubón scored.2–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–8
- 6Judge doubled to center, Cabrera scored and Volpe scored.1–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 6Soto grounded out to first, Wells scored, Volpe to second, Cabrera to third.1–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 3Stanton homered to left (447 feet).1–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 3Judge homered to right center (404 feet).1–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Soto reached on infield single to first, Rizzo scored, Volpe to second, Torres out at home in rundown.1–3
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 31–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1Soto homered to center (440 feet), Volpe scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Tucker homered to right center (395 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 60%
- ML HOU +140 / NYY -165
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- NYY: Elo 54.2%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -149
- HOU +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.3 – 5.2 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −7 | HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +29 Elo | NYY 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 3.43rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.34th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–11 | Road vs home | 12–52nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–22 | 18–19 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–19 | 9–15 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 9–4 |
| Overs–unders | 12–18–3 | 16–20–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 2–10 NYY in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 12.