New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Anthony RizzoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting2-3
- Taj BradleyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rizzo homered to right center (392 feet).2–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Rizzo singled to left, Judge scored, Stanton to second.1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 54%
- ML NYY -130 / TB +110
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 50.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -119
- TB +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.4 – 4.1 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −11 | NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +3 Elo | NYY 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.823rd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 6th of 3012–8 | Road vs home | 13–1011th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–20 | 15–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–16 | 10–19 |
| Underdog | 9–4 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 17–21–1 | 21–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 7–9 TB in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.