Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Tommy PhamBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jared ShusterPitching2.1 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
Rays- Jonny DeLucaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Tyler AlexanderPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Caballero reached on infield single to pitcher, H. Ramírez scored on throwing error by pitcher Hill, Caballero thrown out at third.2–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–7
- 5DeLuca homered to left center (401 feet), Rortvedt scored.2–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 5Rortvedt singled to left, H. Ramírez scored.2–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 3H. Ramírez singled to center, Rosario scored.2–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 3Pham homered to right center (374 feet), Grossman scored.2–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2Díaz grounded into fielder's choice to third, Rortvedt scored, DeLuca out at second.0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2DeLuca singled to right, Caballero scored and H. Ramírez scored, Rortvedt to third.0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 60%
- ML CHW +140 / TB -165
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- TB: Elo 61.9%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- TB -149
- CHW +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.8 – 4.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1424 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −7 | CHW: Mike Clevinger: team allows 0.84 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TB: Tyler Alexander: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +84 Elo | TB 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 61.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 302.9 | Runs scored | 4.019th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.4 | Margin | −1.125th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 29th of 303–14 | Road vs home | 11–911th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–18 | 13–22 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 8–18 |
| Underdog | 16–18 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 16–17–1 | 20–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 4–6 TB in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.