New York Mets at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Brett BatyBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching2.2 IP, 8 ER, 2 K
Rays- Randy ArozarenaBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching4.2 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Baty homered to right (421 feet).8–10
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–10
- 6Rosario reached on infield single to pitcher, Paredes scored, Arozarena to second, H. Ramírez to third.7–10
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–10
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–9
- 5Alonso doubled to left, Lindor scored.7–9
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–9
- 5Lindor doubled to center, Nimmo scored and Nido scored.6–9
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–9
- 5Marte hit sacrifice fly to right, Taylor scored.4–9
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–9
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–9
- 4Arozarena homered to left center (445 feet).3–9
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–9
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–8
- 3Díaz singled to right, DeLuca scored.3–8
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–8
- 3DeLuca singled to left, Rosario scored and Caballero scored.3–7
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–7
- 3Jackson hit sacrifice fly to center, Arozarena scored, Caballero to second, Rosario to third.3–5
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 23–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 3Rosario singled to left, H. Ramírez scored, Arozarena to second.3–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 2Díaz singled to center, Mead scored.3–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 33–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 2Mead doubled to right, Caballero scored.3–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 58%
- ML NYM +130 / TB -150
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- TB: Elo 51.5%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- TB -138
- NYM +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.9 – 4.6 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −8 | NYM: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TB: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +11 Elo | TB 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.822nd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −1.327th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 11th of 307–5 | Road vs home | 8–918th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–15 | 11–21 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 6–17 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 15–15 | 18–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 2–1 TB in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.