Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Isaac ParedesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching8.1 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9H. Ramírez doubled to center, Paredes scored.2–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Benintendi singled to right, Pham scored and Sheets scored, Jiménez to third.1–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 4Mendick singled to right, Jiménez scored, Grossman to second.1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Grossman singled to right, Sheets scored, Jiménez to third.1–1
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 31–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 4Paredes homered to left (365 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 57%
- ML TB -145 / CHW +125
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- TB: Elo 58.7%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -133
- CHW +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.6 – 3.9 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1423 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +12 | TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +61 Elo | TB 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 63.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 62.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 2.730th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.629th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −2.930th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 21st of 305–6 | Road vs home | 4–926th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–18 | 11–16 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–16 | — |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 11–16 |
| Overs–unders | 17–11 | 13–13–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 6–3 CHW in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.