Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting2-5
- Michael SorokaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Twins- Edouard JulienBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Robbie Grossman reaches on a fielding error by first baseman Carlos Santana. Nicky Lopez scores.3–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 8Miranda homered to left center (379 feet).2–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 8Santana homered to right center (400 feet).2–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 7Julien homered to left center (378 feet).2–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 6Castro singled to left, Larnach scored, Kepler to second.2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Jeffers homered to left (379 feet).2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Julien homered to right center (412 feet).2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4DeJong singled to left, Vaughn scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2Pillar hit sacrifice fly to right, Jiménez scored, Grossman to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 66%
- ML CHW +180 / MIN -215
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 69.7%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- MIN -191
- CHW +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.5 – 5.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1419 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −26 | +7 | CHW: Michael Soroka: team allows 1.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +145 Elo | MIN 69.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 67.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 68.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 302.2 | Runs scored | 3.723rd of 30 |
| 29th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.4 | Margin | −0.620th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–12 | Road vs home | 5–619th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–15 | 10–13 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | — | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 9–15 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 10–13–1 | 10–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 4–12 MIN in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 16.