Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Kevin PillarBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Twins- Willi CastroBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 5Kepler scored on García wild pitch, Vázquez to second on wild pitch by García.3–6
- 5Kepler scored on García wild pitch, Vázquez to second on wild pitch by García.3–6
- 5Kepler reached on infield single to shortstop, Margot scored.3–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 33–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 23–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 13–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 5Mendick struck out looking, Shewmake stole home, Lee stole second.3–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Looking3–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 33–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 3Lee homered to left center (422 feet).2–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 3Pillar homered to left (379 feet).1–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 2Castro homered to left (377 feet), Martin scored and Vázquez scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 2Vázquez singled to right, Santana scored, Martin to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 64%
- ML CHW +165 / MIN -200
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 65.1%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- MIN -177
- CHW +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 2.6 – 3.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1420 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +3 | CHW: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +108 Elo | MIN 65.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 66.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 302.2 | Runs scored | 3.625th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.4 | Margin | −0.822nd of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–11 | Road vs home | 4–621st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–14 | 9–13 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | — | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 9–14 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 9–13–1 | 9–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 4–11 MIN in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 15.