Chicago White Sox at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Eloy JimenezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick NastriniPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching8.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Schwarber hit sacrifice fly to left, Stott scored, Rojas to second.2–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 6Schwarber homered to right (423 feet).2–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–7
- 4Bohm doubled to right, Turner scored.2–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–6
- 4Harper hit sacrifice fly to left, Schwarber scored.2–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 4Turner singled to left, Rojas scored, Turner to second, Schwarber to third.2–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 1Marsh singled to right, Harper scored.2–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 1Realmuto struck out swinging, Turner stole home, Harper safe at second on throwing error by second baseman Sosa.2–2
- 1Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging2–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 32–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 22–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 12–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 1Harper singled to center, Schwarber scored, Turner to third.2–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Jiménez homered to center (421 feet), Grossman scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 71%
- ML CHW +235 / PHI -291
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 66.2%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- PHI -249
- CHW +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 2.7 – 4.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1425 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +4 | CHW: Nick Nastrini: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +117 Elo | PHI 66.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 69.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 69.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 71.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 302.1 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.3 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 30th of 301–8 | Road vs home | 9–68th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–12 | 9–12 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 8–10 |
| Underdog | 8–12 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–12–1 | 8–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 1–4 PHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.