Chicago White Sox at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Korey LeeBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Phillies- Brandon MarshBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching7.1 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Sheets singled to center, Lopez scored, Jiménez to second.5–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–9
- 9Jiménez singled to left, Lee scored, Lopez to third.4–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–9
- 9Lee doubled to left, Benintendi scored and Fletcher scored.3–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–9
- 9Fletcher doubled to right, Vaughn scored, Benintendi to third.1–9
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–9
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 20–9
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 10–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–9
- 7Turner doubled to left, Rojas scored and Castellanos scored.0–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 6Realmuto hit sacrifice fly to left, Turner scored.0–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 6Harper singled to center, Rojas scored, Turner to third.0–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 5Castellanos singled to center, Bohm scored and Realmuto scored, Marsh to second.0–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 2Rojas singled to left, Castellanos scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2Marsh homered to right center (403 feet), Bohm scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 76.7% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 76%
- ML CHW +300 / PHI -380
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 68.7%, market 76.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -317
- CHW +317 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 2.5 – 5.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1426 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −21 | −6 | CHW: Michael Soroka: team allows 1.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +137 Elo | PHI 68.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 71.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 70.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 76.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 302.0 | Runs scored | 4.021st of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.2 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 30th of 301–7 | Road vs home | 8–67th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–11 | 8–12 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | — | 7–10 |
| Underdog | 8–11 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 6–12–1 | 7–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 1–3 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.