Chicago White Sox at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Gavin SheetsBatting1-4
- Chris FlexenPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting2-4, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Spencer TurnbullPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 4Merrifield homered to left (367 feet).0–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 3Bohm homered to center (400 feet), Turner scored and Harper scored.0–6
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–6
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Bohm homered to right center (353 feet), Turner scored and Harper scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 62%
- ML CHW +150 / PHI -180
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- PHI: Elo 64.8%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -161
- CHW +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.2 – 4.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1429 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | 0 | CHW: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · PHI: Spencer Turnbull: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +106 Elo | PHI 64.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 67.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 66.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 302.1 | Runs scored | 3.822nd of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.0 | Margin | −0.318th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 30th of 301–6 | Road vs home | 7–610th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–10 | 7–12 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | — | 6–10 |
| Underdog | 8–10 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 6–11–1 | 7–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 1–2 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.