Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Nicky LopezBatting2-4
- Jonathan CannonPitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Twins- Edouard JulienBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 7Julien homered to right (375 feet).0–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 4Julien doubled to center, Kirilloff scored.0–6
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 10–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 3Castro doubled to left, Kepler scored.0–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 3Kepler singled to center, Larnach scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 3Larnach doubled to right, Julien scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Kepler doubled to center, Jeffers scored and Larnach scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 65%
- ML CHW +175 / MIN -210
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 62.3%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -186
- CHW +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.6 – 4.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1423 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −11 | CHW: Jonathan Cannon: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MIN: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +87 Elo | MIN 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 64.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 64.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 302.1 | Runs scored | 3.428th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.4 | Margin | −1.226th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Road vs home | 2–628th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–13 | 8–12 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | — | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 8–13 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 8–12–1 | 8–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 4–9 MIN in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.