Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Eloy JimenezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kirilloff singled to right, Martin scored, Jeffers to third.5–6
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 35–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 25–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 9Buxton homered to left (371 feet).5–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 8Larnach homered to right center (433 feet), Julien scored.5–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 8Benintendi singled to center, Mendick scored and Jiménez scored.5–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 7Santana doubled to left, Buxton scored.3–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Jiménez homered to left (415 feet), Mendick scored and Sheets scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Kepler singled to center, Larnach scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 71%
- ML CHW +230 / MIN -278
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 64.0%, market 70.8%
- Fair odds
- MIN -243
- CHW +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 2.5 – 4.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1421 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +5 | CHW: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +100 Elo | MIN 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 69.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 68.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 70.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 302.0 | Runs scored | 3.525th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.5 | Margin | −0.924th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–10 | Road vs home | 3–623rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–14 | 9–12 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 8–14 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 8–13–1 | 8–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 4–10 MIN in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 14.