Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Richie PalaciosBatting3-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting3-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Jonathan CannonPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Benintendi homered to right center (401 feet), Ortega scored.7–8
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–8
- 10Mead scored on García wild pitch, Rortvedt to second on wild pitch by García.7–6
- 10Mead scored on García wild pitch, Rortvedt to second on wild pitch by García.7–6
- 6Arozarena doubled to left, Palacios scored and Rortvedt scored.6–6
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 34–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 5Benintendi singled to center, Sheets scored, Vaughn to second.4–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–6
- 5Vaughn grounded into fielder's choice to second, Pham scored, Sheets third.4–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5Sheets hit a ground rule double, Lopez scored, Pham to third.4–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 5Shenton homered to left (365 feet).4–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 13–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 4Benintendi homered to center (405 feet), Jiménez scored and Vaughn scored.3–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Palacios homered to right (386 feet), Rortvedt scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Caballero singled to center, Mead scored, Rortvedt to second.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- TB 66%
- ML TB -215 / CHW +180
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- TB: Elo 60.1%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- TB -191
- CHW +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 5.0 – 3.5 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1421 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +2 | TB: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Jonathan Cannon: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +71 Elo | TB 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 61.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 2.530th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.629th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −3.130th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 17th of 305–5 | Road vs home | 3–929th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–17 | 10–16 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–15 | — |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 10–16 |
| Overs–unders | 16–11 | 12–13–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 6–2 CHW in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.