Tampa Bay Rays at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Curtis MeadBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Martin MaldonadoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris FlexenPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Mead singled to center, Rosario scored.4–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–9
- 8Lopez scored on E. Ramírez wild pitch, Pham to second on wild pitch by E. Ramírez.3–9
- 8Lopez scored on E. Ramírez wild pitch, Pham to second on wild pitch by E. Ramírez.3–9
- 8Ortega hit sacrifice fly to right, Maldonado scored, Lopez to third.3–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 8Siri singled to left, H. Ramírez scored, Mead to second.3–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–7
- 7Jiménez homered to left center (410 feet), Ortega scored.2–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 7Rosario walked, Pinto scored, Arozarena to second, Díaz to third.2–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 42–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 31–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 7Pinto doubled to right, Caballero scored.1–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 6Maldonado homered to left (401 feet), Mendick scored and DeJong scored.0–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 4DeJong singled to left, Mendick scored.0–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Vaughn hit sacrifice fly to right, Pham scored, Grossman to third.0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TB 64%
- ML TB -200 / CHW +170
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- TB: Elo 66.2%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -180
- CHW +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.4 – 3.1 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1418 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −30 | TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Chris Flexen: team allows 1.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +117 Elo | TB 66.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 67.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 67.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 2.230th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.629th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −3.430th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–4 | Road vs home | 2–929th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–16 | 9–16 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 6–14 | — |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 9–16 |
| Overs–unders | 15–11 | 11–13–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 6–1 CHW in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.