Chicago Cubs at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Christopher MorelBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ben BrownPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting2-3, 4 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 11Lindor doubled to left, Bader scored and Baty scored.6–7
- 11Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–7
- 11Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 11Pitch 4 : Ball 36–5
- 11Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball 26–5
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 11Madrigal doubled to right, Wisdom scored.6–5
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–5
- 6Nimmo doubled to left, Lindor scored.5–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 6Lindor doubled to right, Bader scored and McNeil scored.5–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 6Crow-Armstrong doubled to right, Wisdom scored.5–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 34–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 5Marte singled to center, Bader scored, Nimmo to second.4–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 5Nimmo singled to left, Baty scored, Bader to third.4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 5Morel homered to left (390 feet), Hoerner scored and Happ scored.4–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Crow-Armstrong grounded out to second, Busch scored, Madrigal to second, Wisdom to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 52%
- ML CHC +100 / NYM -120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- NYM: Elo 52.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -109
- CHC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.2 – 4.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −25 | −3 | CHC: Ben Brown: team allows 1.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NYM: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +15 Elo | NYM 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.112th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.217th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 15th of 309–9 | Road vs home | 8–1020th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–11 | 15–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–6 | 6–9 |
| Underdog | 14–5 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 13–17–1 | 14–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 5–4 NYM in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.