Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Yan GomesBatting2-4
- Ben BrownPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Red Sox- Ceddanne RafaelaBatting4-4, 1 HR, 7 RBI
- Josh WinckowskiPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Reyes singled to center, Rafaela scored, Duran to second.0–17
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–17
- 8Rafaela doubled to left, Dalbec scored.0–16
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–16
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–16
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 30–16
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 20–16
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–16
- 8Dalbec doubled to center, Hamilton scored and Yoshida scored.0–15
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–15
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 30–15
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–15
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–15
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 20–15
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–15
- 8Hamilton singled to left, Abreu scored, Yoshida to third.0–13
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–13
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–13
- 8Yoshida doubled to center, O'Neill scored, Abreu to third.0–12
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–12
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–12
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–12
- 7Rafaela homered to center (411 feet), Yoshida scored.0–11
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–11
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–11
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 30–11
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–11
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–11
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–11
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 20–11
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–11
- 5Duran grounded out to first, Rafaela scored.0–9
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–9
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–9
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–8
- 5Rafaela doubled to left, Dalbec scored, Wong scored and Hamilton scored.0–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 5Dalbec reached on infield single to shortstop, Abreu scored, Refsnyder to second, Wong to third.0–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 52%
- ML CHC -120 / BOS +100
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- CHC: Elo 51.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -109
- BOS +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.3 – 4.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +9 | CHC: Ben Brown: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · BOS: Josh Winckowski: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +9 Elo | CHC 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.85th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.612th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 12th of 307–6 | Road vs home | 3–828th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–8 | 14–13 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–4 | 3–9 |
| Underdog | 12–4 | 11–4 |
| Overs–unders | 12–13–1 | 12–13–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 2–2 BOS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.