Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Red Sox- Tyler O'NeillBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Wisdom doubled to center, Busch scored and Morel scored.7–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 7Morel singled to left, Tauchman scored.5–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 5Busch hit sacrifice fly to left, Tauchman scored, Happ to second.4–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4O'Neill homered to center (403 feet).3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 4Crow-Armstrong sacrificed to pitcher, Swanson scored, Amaya to second.3–0
- 2Crow-Armstrong singled to center, Swanson scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Bunted Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Mervis singled to right, Busch scored, Swanson to second.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 50%
- ML CHC -110 / BOS -110
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 46.4%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -100
- CHC -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.8 – 3.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | −2 | CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.97 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +25 Elo | CHC 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.75th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.810th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 16th of 306–6 | Road vs home | 3–728th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–8 | 14–12 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–4 | 3–8 |
| Underdog | 11–4 | 11–4 |
| Overs–unders | 11–13–1 | 11–13–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 1–2 BOS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.