Chicago Cubs at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Christopher MorelBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching7.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Morel homered to left center (402 feet), Tauchman scored.3–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 8Madrigal grounded into fielder's choice to third, Busch scored, Mervis out at second.1–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Nimmo homered to right center (397 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 58%
- ML CHC +130 / NYM -150
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.8 pts
- NYM: Elo 48.2%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- NYM -138
- CHC +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.4 – 4.1 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −6 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Luis Severino: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +12 Elo | CHC 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.615th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.315th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 20th of 307–8 | Road vs home | 7–817th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–9 | 13–13 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–5 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 13–4 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 13–14–1 | 14–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 3–3 NYM in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.