Chicago Cubs at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Mike TauchmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Hayden WesneskiPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Connor WongBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Tanner HouckPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9O'Neill singled to left, Duran scored, Devers to second.4–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 8Tauchman homered to center (402 feet), Crow-Armstrong scored and Hoerner scored.4–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 7Mervis singled to right, Busch scored, Swanson to third.1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Duran tripled to center, Refsnyder scored and Rafaela scored.0–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Wong reached on infield single to third, Devers scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Wong singled to center, Devers scored, O'Neill to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 58%
- ML CHC +130 / BOS -150
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 53.9%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -138
- CHC +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.4 – 5.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −22 | +6 | CHC: Hayden Wesneski: team allows 1.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BOS: Tanner Houck: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +27 Elo | BOS 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.811th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.65th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +1.17th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 16th of 307–7 | Road vs home | 4–825th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–9 | 15–13 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–5 | 3–9 |
| Underdog | 12–4 | 12–4 |
| Overs–unders | 13–13–1 | 13–13–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 2–3 BOS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.