Chicago Cubs at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Mike TauchmanBatting2-4
- Javier AssadPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Mets- DJ StewartBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Mervis grounded out to first, Tauchman scored.2–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 6Stewart homered to right (388 feet), Martinez scored and Taylor scored.1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 2Amaya hit sacrifice fly to left, Swanson scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 1Alonso hit sacrifice fly to center, Lindor scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 53%
- ML CHC +105 / NYM -125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- NYM: Elo 46.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -114
- CHC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.6 – 3.9 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −11 | CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +28 Elo | CHC 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.217th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 16th of 308–8 | Road vs home | 7–917th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–9 | 13–14 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–5 | 5–9 |
| Underdog | 14–4 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 13–15–1 | 14–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 4–3 NYM in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.