Tampa Bay Rays at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Richie PalaciosBatting2-3
- Zach EflinPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Palacios scored on Uribe wild pitch, Rosario to second.1–7
- 8Palacios scored on Uribe wild pitch, Rosario to second on wild pitch by Uribe.1–7
- 7Adames homered to center (408 feet), Perkins scored and Contreras scored.0–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 7Perkins doubled to left, Dunn scored.0–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 6Adames homered to center (412 feet).0–3
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 30–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 20–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3Contreras doubled to left, Dunn scored and Turang scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 51%
- ML TB -115 / MIL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- TB: Elo 44.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -104
- MIL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.3 – 4.2 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | 0 | TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +40 Elo | MIL 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.26th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.522nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +0.711th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 22nd of 306–8 | Road vs home | 6–718th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–20 | 15–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–17 | 4–8 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders | 18–13 | 18–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 3–2 MIL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.