Tampa Bay Rays at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jose SiriBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler AlexanderPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Turang doubled to center, Chourio scored and Ortiz scored.2–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 6Palacios singled to center, Siri scored.2–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–6
- 5Adames homered to center (400 feet), Hoskins scored and Black scored.1–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 3Siri homered to left center (452 feet).1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Contreras hit sacrifice fly to right, Turang scored, Wiemer to third.0–3
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 30–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Turang singled to center, Chourio scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Adames hit sacrifice fly to center, Contreras scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 62%
- ML TB +155 / MIL -180
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 55.6%, market 62.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -164
- TB +164 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.2 – 4.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +9 | TB: Tyler Alexander: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +39 Elo | MIL 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 62.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.16th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.512th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 21st of 306–7 | Road vs home | 5–720th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–19 | 14–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–17 | 3–8 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders | 17–13 | 17–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 3–1 MIL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.