Tampa Bay Rays at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Isaac ParedesBatting2-4
- Ryan PepiotPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Brewers- Sal FrelickBatting1-4
- Bryse WilsonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 1Paredes grounded into double play, third to second to first, Díaz scored, Arozarena out at second, Palacios to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 52%
- ML TB +100 / MIL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- MIL: Elo 56.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -109
- TB +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.2 – 4.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +11 | TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · MIL: Bryse Wilson: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +43 Elo | MIL 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.35th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +0.512th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 22nd of 305–7 | Road vs home | 5–617th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–19 | 14–13 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–17 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders | 17–12 | 17–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 2–1 MIL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.