Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Alex KirilloffBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Tommy PhamBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris FlexenPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Castro singled to left, Jeffers scored.10–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–5
- 9Jeffers doubled to right, Correa scored and Miranda scored.9–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 37–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 27–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 9Miranda doubled to left, Farmer scored, Correa to third.7–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–5
- 7Lee homered to center (400 feet).6–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 7Miranda singled to center, Correa scored, Kepler to second.6–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 25–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 7Kepler singled to right, Kirilloff scored, Correa to third.5–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Kepler scored and Larnach scored on error, Castro safe at first on fielding error by shortstop DeJong, Santana safe at third on error.4–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 32–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 5Grossman doubled to right, DeJong scored.2–4
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 32–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 5Kirilloff homered to left (354 feet).2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 3Pham homered to left center (413 feet).1–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 67%
- ML MIN -225 / CHW +190
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 64.3%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- MIN -201
- CHW +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 5.0 – 3.5 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1423 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −23 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Chris Flexen: team allows 1.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +102 Elo | MIN 64.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 62.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 2.830th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.427th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 10th of 3010–7 | Road vs home | 5–1128th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–15 | 14–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–9 | — |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 14–16 |
| Overs–unders | 14–15 | 14–15–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 15–4 CHW in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 19.