Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Carlos SantanaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching7.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Angels- Zach NetoBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Patrick SandovalPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Neto singled to right, O'Hoppe scored, Rengifo to third.5–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 25–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 9Castro doubled to left, Martin scored, Julien to third.5–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 8Schanuel singled to left, Neto scored, Trout to second.4–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Schanuel grounded out to shortstop, Rengifo scored, Neto to third.4–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 6Santana singled to center, Miranda scored.4–0
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 33–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 5Jeffers singled to left, Castro scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Buxton singled to left, Castro scored, Buxton to second.2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2Santana homered to center (425 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 51%
- ML MIN -105 / LAA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- LAA: Elo 45.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LAA -104
- MIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.2 – 4.3 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −14 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.68 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +35 Elo | MIN 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.216th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.720th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305–7 | Road vs home | 3–623rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–13 | 13–12 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–7 | 0–6 |
| Underdog | 5–6 | 13–6 |
| Overs–unders | 11–13 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–3 LAA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.