Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Ryan JeffersBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Angels- Luis RengifoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Miranda doubled to left, Buxton scored.11–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 211–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 111–5
- 8Jeffers hit sacrifice fly to right, Martin scored.10–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking10–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 110–5
- 7Trout singled to left, Rengifo scored, Schanuel to second.9–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 29–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking9–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 19–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–5
- 7Castro singled to right, Kirilloff scored.9–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul9–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 29–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 19–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–4
- 7Santana grounded out to second, Buxton scored.8–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging8–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 28–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 18–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–4
- 7Kirilloff hit a ground rule double, Martin scored and Jeffers scored, Buxton to third.7–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking7–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 37–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 27–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 5Schanuel homered to right (376 feet).5–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking5–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 35–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 25–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 51%
- ML MIN -115 / LAA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 53.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIN -104
- LAA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.8 – 3.7 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +16 | MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +21 Elo | MIN 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.327th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −1.126th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 15th of 307–7 | Road vs home | 3–829th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–13 | 13–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–7 | 0–8 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 13–6 |
| Overs–unders | 12–14 | 14–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–3 LAA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.