Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Carlos SantanaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Angels- Jo AdellBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Carson FulmerPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jeffers homered to left center (393 feet), Julien scored.16–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play16–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking14–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking14–5
- 7Drury hit sacrifice fly to center, Moniak scored.14–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play14–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging14–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul14–4
- 7Julien doubled to left, Kirilloff scored and Martin scored.14–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play14–4
- 7Kirilloff singled to right, Farmer scored, Martin to third.12–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play12–4
- 6Kepler homered to center (407 feet).11–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–4
- 4Santana homered to right (408 feet), Larnach scored and Castro scored.10–4
- 4Pitch 8 : Ball In Play10–4
- 4Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging7–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 37–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 27–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 3Adell singled to left, Hicks scored, Thaiss to second.7–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–3
- 3Hicks singled to center, Ward scored.7–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 17–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–2
- 3Farmer doubled to left, Castro scored and Santana scored.7–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 3Santana doubled to center, Kepler scored, Castro to third.5–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 24–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 14–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 2Adell homered to left center (393 feet), Thaiss scored.4–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 51%
- ML MIN -105 / LAA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- LAA: Elo 47.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LAA -104
- MIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.2 – 4.3 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +8 | MIN: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +20 Elo | MIN 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.722nd of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 20th of 306–7 | Road vs home | 3–729th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–13 | 13–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–7 | 0–7 |
| Underdog | 6–6 | 13–6 |
| Overs–unders | 11–14 | 13–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 4–3 LAA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.