Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
White Sox- Danny MendickBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kepler hit sacrifice fly to center, Buxton scored.6–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 25–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–5
- 8Benintendi homered to right (384 feet).5–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 15–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 8Larnach singled to right, Correa scored.5–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 8Correa singled to left, Margot scored, Correa to second.4–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Larnach struck out swinging, Jeffers stole home, Kepler stole second.3–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging3–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 32–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 5Mendick homered to left center (404 feet), Benintendi scored.2–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 5Farmer doubled to left, Castro scored.2–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 5Castro tripled to left, Larnach scored.1–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 63%
- ML MIN -185 / CHW +160
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- MIN: Elo 65.2%, market 62.8%
- Fair odds
- MIN -169
- CHW +169 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.8 – 3.7 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1424 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −21 | MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · CHW: Michael Soroka: team allows 1.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +109 Elo | MIN 65.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 62.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 62.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 2.730th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.427th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −2.730th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 12th of 309–7 | Road vs home | 5–1026th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–14 | 13–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–8 | — |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 13–16 |
| Overs–unders | 13–15 | 13–15–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 14–4 CHW in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 18.