Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Carlos SantanaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kepler singled to right, Buxton scored.3–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2Santana homered to left (392 feet), Margot scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 1Jiménez grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Vaughn scored, Sheets out at second.0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Vaughn doubled to left, Lopez scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 60%
- ML MIN -165 / CHW +140
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 61.0%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- MIN -149
- CHW +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.2 – 3.3 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1425 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +4 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +78 Elo | MIN 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 59.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 2.830th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.527th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −2.830th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 14th of 308–7 | Road vs home | 5–925th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–13 | 12–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–7 | — |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 12–16 |
| Overs–unders | 13–14 | 13–14–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 13–4 CHW in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 17.