Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Nicky LopezBatting1-4
- Brad KellerPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Arenado doubled to right, Contreras scored.0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 1Arenado doubled to left, Goldschmidt scored and Contreras scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- STL 70%
- ML CHW +220 / STL -270
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.9 pts
- STL: Elo 60.1%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- STL -234
- CHW +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 2.8 – 4.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1421 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +16 | CHW: Brad Keller: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +71 Elo | STL 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 65.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 64.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 302.9 | Runs scored | 3.527th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.7 | Margin | −1.023rd of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–13 | Road vs home | 5–723rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–17 | 16–14 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 14–17 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders | 15–15–1 | 10–18–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 1–2 STL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.