New York Mets at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting2-6, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Rays- Randy ArozarenaBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching2.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10DeLuca tripled to center, Caballero scored and Rortvedt scored.6–7
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–7
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–5
- 10Bader scored on error, Nimmo safe at first on error by first baseman Díaz.6–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–5
- 9Arozarena homered to left center (373 feet).5–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 35–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 25–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–4
- 4Nimmo singled to center, Baty scored, Narváez to second.5–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 4Narváez singled to right, Bader scored, Baty to third.4–4
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 23–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 13–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 3DeLuca singled to left, Caballero scored.3–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 3Stewart walked, Narváez scored, Marte to second, Nimmo to third.3–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 43–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 32–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 2Díaz singled to center, Jackson scored and DeLuca scored.2–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 50%
- ML NYM -110 / TB -110
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.8 pts
- TB: Elo 56.8%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- TB -100
- NYM -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.8 – 3.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +9 | NYM: Luis Severino: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +47 Elo | TB 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.920th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −1.126th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 14th of 307–7 | Road vs home | 10–913th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–17 | 13–21 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 8–17 |
| Underdog | 9–7 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 16–16 | 19–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 2–3 TB in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.