New York Mets at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Starling MarteBatting2-3
- Christian ScottPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Rays- Isaac ParedesBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Caballero walked, Paredes scored, Shenton to second, Arozarena to third.1–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 41–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 31–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 8Shenton walked, Palacios scored, Arozarena to second, Paredes to third.1–2
- 8Pitch 9 : Ball 41–2
- 8Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 31–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Paredes singled to right, Díaz scored, Palacios to third.1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Marte singled to right, Nimmo scored on fielding error by right fielder DeLuca, Marte to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 50%
- ML NYM -110 / TB -110
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- TB: Elo 54.8%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- TB -100
- NYM -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.8 – 3.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −1 | NYM: Christian Scott (no track record yet) · TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +34 Elo | TB 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.921st of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.226th of 30 |
| 18th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −1.227th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 13th of 307–6 | Road vs home | 9–914th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–16 | 12–21 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 7–17 |
| Underdog | 9–6 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 16–15 | 19–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 2–2 TB in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.