Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Eloy JimenezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Grossman hit sacrifice fly to center, Ramos scored, Shewmake to third.5–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 7Shewmake singled to left, DeJong scored, Ramos to third.4–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 7DeJong doubled to left, Sheets scored.3–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 7Jiménez homered to center (411 feet).2–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 4Contreras homered to center (426 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Ramos hit sacrifice fly to center, DeJong scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 60%
- ML CHW +140 / STL -165
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- STL: Elo 59.9%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- STL -149
- CHW +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.3 – 4.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1421 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +9 | CHW: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · STL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +70 Elo | STL 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 60.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 302.9 | Runs scored | 3.529th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.6 | Margin | −0.823rd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–14 | Road vs home | 6–823rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–18 | 17–15 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 6–7 |
| Underdog | 15–18 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders | 16–16–1 | 11–19–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 2–3 STL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.