Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Paul DeJongBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Rays- Isaac ParedesBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7DeJong homered to left (369 feet).1–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 6Paredes homered to left center (404 feet).0–5
- 6Pitch 9 : Ball In Play0–5
- 6Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball 30–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 20–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 10–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 3Arozarena homered to left (363 feet), Díaz scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 9 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball 30–2
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 2Rortvedt grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Palacios scored, DeLuca out at second, H. Ramírez to third.0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2H. Ramírez singled to left, Paredes scored, Palacios to second.0–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- TB 70%
- ML CHW +225 / TB -275
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- TB: Elo 67.6%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- TB -238
- CHW +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 2.8 – 4.7 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1422 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −22 | −7 | CHW: Michael Soroka: team allows 1.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +128 Elo | TB 67.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 69.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 68.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 302.9 | Runs scored | 4.119th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.5 | Margin | −0.923rd of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 29th of 303–15 | Road vs home | 12–910th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–19 | 14–22 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 9–18 |
| Underdog | 16–19 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 17–17–1 | 21–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 4–7 TB in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.