New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Jose TrevinoBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis GilPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Rays- Jose SiriBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Tyler AlexanderPitching7.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Díaz homered to right center (383 feet).10–6
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play10–6
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 210–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul10–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul10–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking10–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul10–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 110–5
- 8Trevino homered to left (381 feet).10–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging9–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–5
- 8Torres homered to left center (395 feet), Grisham scored and Rizzo scored.9–5
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play9–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 26–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 16–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 7Paredes hit by pitch, Díaz scored, Arozarena to second, J. Lowe to third.6–5
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging6–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 36–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 26–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 7Siri homered to left center (411 feet), Palacios scored, DeLuca scored and Rortvedt scored.6–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 5Judge homered to right (374 feet), Soto scored.6–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–0
- 4Trevino homered to left (409 feet), Rizzo scored.4–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 58%
- ML NYY -150 / TB +130
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.4 pts
- NYY: Elo 48.6%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- NYY -138
- TB +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.6 – 3.9 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +1 | NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · TB: Tyler Alexander: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +10 Elo | TB 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.021st of 30 |
| 1st of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.722nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 6th of 3013–9 | Road vs home | 14–1112th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–21 | 16–24 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–16 | 11–19 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 18–22–1 | 22–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 8–10 TB in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 18.