New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Anthony VolpeBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Rays- Randy ArozarenaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Paredes hit sacrifice fly to right, Arozarena scored.2–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 7Arozarena doubled to left, Díaz scored.2–6
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 32–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 7Díaz doubled to center, Rortvedt scored.2–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 3Arozarena homered to right center (385 feet), Siri scored and Díaz scored.2–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 2Volpe singled to left, Rizzo scored and Wells scored, Grisham thrown out at third.2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Díaz homered to left center (401 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 50%
- ML NYY -110 / TB -110
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 44%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- TB: Elo 51.9%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- TB -100
- NYY -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.3 – 4.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +7 | NYY: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +13 Elo | TB 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.921st of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.822nd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 5th of 3013–8 | Road vs home | 13–1112th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–20 | 15–24 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–16 | 10–19 |
| Underdog | 9–4 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 17–22–1 | 21–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 8–9 TB in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.