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Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast

Final

Away

Twins

24-16

5–1

at

Home

Blue Jays

18-22

MIN 52%TOR 48%

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Rogers Centre

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.

TOR75%50%75%MINStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Twins
  • Carlos SantanaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
  • Bailey OberPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Blue Jays
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting1-3
  • Alek ManoahPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K

Scoring summary

  • 8Kepler doubled to right, Correa scored and Julien scored.5–1
  • 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
  • 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
  • 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
  • 7Jansen hit sacrifice fly to center, Guerrero Jr. scored.3–1
  • 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
  • 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
  • 7Pitch 3 : Ball 13–0
  • 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
  • 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
  • 7Santana homered to right center (399 feet), Kepler scored and Kirilloff scored.3–0
  • 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
  • 7Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
  • 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Twins 52%

Toss-upHit
MIN 52%TOR 48%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
MIN 52%
ML MIN -120 / TOR +100
Pre-line forecast
MIN 50%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
MIN 52%
Ratings vs. market
−0.5 pts
MIN: Elo 51.7%, market 52.2%
Fair odds
MIN -109
TOR +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
MIN 3.8 – 3.7 TOR
Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorMINTORWhy
Team rating15291502Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−12−15MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Alek Manoah: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsMIN +12 EloMIN 51.7%
Market-implied ratingsTOR 50.8%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastTOR 50.4%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastMIN 52.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.

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Minnesota Twins and Toronto Blue Jays compared, with each team's league rank
MINStatTOR
8th of 304.9Runs scored3.724th of 30
12th of 304.3Runs allowed4.825th of 30
10th of 30+0.6Margin−1.126th of 30
3rd of 307–3Last 104–617th of 30
5th of 3012–8Road vs home9–814th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

TwinsBlue Jays
14001450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJul

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonMINTOR
Run line21–1818–21
Last 107–33–7
Favorite11–1111–11
Underdog10–77–10
Overs–unders20–1917–21–1
Overs–unders, last 106–46–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

MIN 6–4 TOR in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.