Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Kevin KiermaierBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Phillies- Bryson StottBatting1-2, 2 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Stott doubled to right, Marsh scored, Castellanos to third.5–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Kiermaier reached on infield single to shortstop, Schneider scored, Kiner-Falefa to second.5–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 14–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 7Stott hit sacrifice fly to center, Marsh scored, Castellanos to third.4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Kiermaier singled to left, Bichette scored, Schneider to second.4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Schneider singled to left, Jansen scored, Bichette to second.3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Bichette singled to right, Turner scored, Jansen to third.2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 3Schwarber hit sacrifice fly to right, Stott scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Guerrero Jr. singled to left, Springer scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 61%
- ML TOR +145 / PHI -170
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 62.6%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- PHI -154
- TOR +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.8 – 4.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +7 | TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +89 Elo | PHI 62.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 58.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.65th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +1.53rd of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 25th of 308–13 | Road vs home | 15–63rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–20 | 19–18 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–10 | 14–15 |
| Underdog | 6–10 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 16–19–1 | 17–19–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 1–4 PHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.