Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Alek ManoahPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting4-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Meneses hit sacrifice fly to center, Abrams scored, Winker to second, Vargas to third.8–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–10
- 7Rosario homered to right center (402 feet), Winker scored.8–10
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–10
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–8
- 6L. García Jr. singled to center, Young scored, L. García Jr. out stretching at second.8–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 28–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 18–7
- 5Varsho scored on error, Clement safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Abrams.8–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 17–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–7
- 5Kiner-Falefa hit sacrifice fly to right, Schneider scored, Varsho to third.7–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 16–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–7
- 4Winker homered to right center (393 feet), L. García Jr. scored and Senzel scored.6–7
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–7
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 36–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 26–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 4L. García Jr. singled to center, Rosario scored and Young scored.6–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–4
- 3L. García Jr. homered to center (405 feet).6–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 36–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 26–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 3Kiner-Falefa singled to right, Schneider scored.6–1
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play6–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking5–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 35–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 51%
- ML TOR -105 / WSH -115
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- WSH: Elo 49.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- WSH -104
- TOR +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.2 – 4.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +2 | TOR: Alek Manoah: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +2 Elo | TOR 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.019th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −0.419th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 23rd of 308–11 | Road vs home | 5–927th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–18 | 20–13 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–10 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 6–8 | 19–12 |
| Overs–unders | 14–19–1 | 15–17–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–2 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.