Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Michael MasseyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Pasquantino doubled to right, Witt Jr. scored.4–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 8Witt Jr. doubled to left, Garcia scored.3–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 6Bichette singled to center, Kiner-Falefa scored, Guerrero Jr. to second.2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Massey homered to right center (404 feet), Perez scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 54%
- ML KC +110 / TOR -130
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.8 pts
- TOR: Elo 60.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -119
- KC +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.6 – 3.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +17 | KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +71 Elo | TOR 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.626th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.2 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.822nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 24th of 305–8 | Road vs home | 8–57th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–11 | 15–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–4 | 9–7 |
| Underdog | 14–7 | 6–8 |
| Overs–unders | 11–18–1 | 12–17–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 4–8 TOR in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.